What does 2007 have in store?
Now that the salesfest that was 2006 is over, what do we have to look forward to in our new year? It will be interesting to see if more “old” collections come out of the homes and on to the auction block (although I don’t think many sellers and longtime collectors are as eager to sell after a perception by some that the market is soft right now.) If those collections do come out, I think the opportunity to add to your personal collection for a bit of a discount may continue.
I personally think that 2007 is going to continue a few trends. First of all, I think that older contemporary glass will continue to grow in popularity and value (and be honest with yourself, a lot of new people in carnival glass are entering the market with the purchase of some contemporary, and then moving onto the “classic” variety of carnival.) This trend is good for carnival (if at least for the perception that if the newer stuff is going up in value, then the older stuff should as well.)
The other trend I see continuing and growing is the move towards non-American manufactured carnival glass becoming more popular. There is a lot of European glass seeing better appreciation in value than its American counterparts. For a long time, many U.S. collectors haven’t held the European stuff in high regard, but that is beginning to change. The simple yet mind-blowing beauty of a piece of Inwald or Brockwitz is starting to earn a cult following in some circles, and that will only drive the values higher. As the values increase, the financial-based collectors (you know, the ones who want to make a dollar, or rather a euro, at the end of the day) will follow. Mark my words: the financial-based collectors are always the ones who drive the market in the United States (and indeed the world.)
2007 is also going to begin to see some carnival glass clubs start to falter. There will still be a lot of conventions, mind you, but there may be some conventions with no auction. Sure, that is a throwback to the “good old days” and all, but I think those conventions will fail (though we all want them to succeed, at least on principle.) The auctioneer (whether you care to admit it or not) drives attendance to the conventions. If he ain’t there, then very few will be.
I also believe that clubs are going to start seeing this fact this year, and the times of forcing auctioneers to bid on getting a convention will be over. Clubs have had the “luxury” of demanding the best auction for their convention for the past 5-10 years, but no longer. The entire modus operandi of the auctioneer-convention relationship is about to flip. Very shortly, it will be the auctioneer asking the club “what can you do for me to get me to bring a large auction?” Clubs are going to have to compete to get the best auctions (because, as I said, the auction and the auctioneer drives attendance.) The ones that aren’t willing to forego a commission, give the auctioneer some sort of incentive (marketing, free rooms, etc.) are the ones that may get an auction, but it may only be a $50,000 auction.
There are many who feel that this is wrong because, in their view, the convention provides a built-in audience for the auction, but this isn’t really true anymore. The big auctioneers have their own locations now, ones they pay rent or payments on, and those locations don’t charge them a rental fee, a percentage of the commission, and hotel room nights to have their auction. The auctioneer is in this for the money (and more power to them, everyone needs to make a living), and to ask him or her to voluntarily give up some of their hard-earned income is just wrong (and it isn’t going to happen for much longer.)
The auctioneer has gotten around this before by passing on the expenses to the seller in the form of increased commission rates, but with eBay and the competitive nature of the auction market these days, the sellers are starting to rebel and demand lower fees. Picture this: you are selling your collection and your auctioneer asks you “if I sell it at my place, I will charge you 15% commission, but if I sell it at a convention, I need to charge you 18% commission.” Which one would you choose?
Anyway, 2007 is going to be a bit of a catalyst for the carnival glass world, I think. There will probably be more carnival glass bought and sold than any previous year, and the opportunities to own will present themselves to you. It’s up to you to make it a good year. Happy hunting!